It's Now or Never for Barack Obama

It’s Now or Never for Barack Obama

Young Atticus, Esq.
Special to the St. Louis American


Illinois junior Senator Barack Obama is the biggest, most popular politician of our lifetimes not named Bill Clinton. Since he exploded onto the national scene with a legendary keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Obama’s meteoric rise to stardom and widespread political respect has been unprecedented. At the height of his own popularity, not even Bill boasted such universal approval across the defining demographics of race, gender, region, and religion that is endemic to the Obama mystique. While much of his charm comes from his “everyman” story, he has proven to be a reasonable and moderate voice in his brief time in Washington.
In an October 2006 appearance on Meet the Press, Obama did not declare his candidacy for the White House in 2008, but opened the possibility of making a run. In the two months since, Obama has behaved like a presidential hopeful, making public appearances in early caucus states Iowa and New Hampshire, and delivering speeches before key interest groups such as the Chicago Council and the Global Summit on AIDS and the Church. Politicos and pundits have filled op-ed spaces and hours of airtime with speculation on whether he would run, and more importantly, musing on the wisdom of the potential bid. So far, the message has been clear: we love ya lots Barack, but sit this one out.
The naysayers are with good reason. An Obama presidential run would defy logic and conventional political wisdom. He’s not even two years into his six-year term as senator. He’s only 45 years old. Even his biggest supporters must admit that he doesn’t have the experience in foreign affairs or economic policy to be the leader of the free world. Oh and one more thing: his all-but-declared competition for the Democratic nomination is his senate colleague, American icon, and wife of the most popular politician ever, Hillary Rodham Clinton. If polls are to be believed, likely Democratic voters favor Clinton for the nomination over Obama by a healthy 13 to 14 percent margin.
All that being the case, Sen. Obama should run for President of the United States in 2008, because this is his only chance to win.
Hope-heavy politics and intriguing personal stories are well and good, but the world is excited about Barack Obama for President for two reasons. First, he is black, but somehow racially ambiguous enough to widely appeal to a rapidly changing America. Second, at 45, he is extremely young as politicians go.
The first pillar of Obama’s wild popularity is his racial background. His mother was a white Kansan, and his father a Kenyan economist who came to the United States to study. On top of that, he was raised in Hawaii, of all places. Therefore, while Obama is brown in phenotype, he is not typically “black”; his uniquely American personal story, along with his look enable him to evade many of the racist stereotypes associated with African Americans. Should he run successfully, President Obama would mirror the changing American population: centrist, and increasingly brown but racially nebulous.
Second, Obama’s age is largely the reason that he should run. Political youth and vigor go hand-in-hand with the perception that he could bring fresh ideas to the country, while not yet having been jaded by the Washington machine.
But here’s the catch: federal politics runs in cycles, and this is the Democrats’ turn on top. Assuming that the Dems can ride the November wave through 2008, they will reclaim the White House. If Obama doesn’t run then, he surely won’t challenge the incumbent, his party-mate, in 2012. At the end of the Democratic incumbent’s second term in 2016, the winds of political change could again be upon us, giving way to another four or eight year GOP presidential reign. Worst-case scenario, the door would re-open for Obama in 2024, when he would be a 63-year-old Capitol Hill veteran. By then, the JFK-like spark that defines Obama’s current celebrity would be a distant memory. Chronologically, ’08 is his best shot.
Obama’s presidential ambitions still carry significant peril. The ubiquitous Hillary, and former senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards present the stiffest of competition. Also, if history is a guide, Obama could face the same fate as L. Douglas Wilder, the African American former governor of Virginia who attempted to parlay his post-election popularity into the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination. Like Obama would be, Wilder was only two years into his gubernatorial tenure when he ran for president. Wilder was attacked as having placed his personal ambitions before his commitment to Virginia, and he was trounced thoroughly in the primaries.
Nevertheless, the hopeless political romantic in me wants Barack to give it a go. In 2004, Edwards was proven beatable, and he has been out of the public eye since. As for the Wilder dilemma, Obama was a national figure as soon as anyone outside of Illinois knew him, while Wilder tried to go national off his Virginia buzz. Right now, Sen. Clinton is the major obstacle. But she is not nearly as well liked as the gentleman from Illinois. Furthermore, assuming they duel in the primaries, both Clinton and Obama would benefit from bigotry; she from those who can’t see a black president, and he from a segment who wouldn’t vote for a woman as commander-in-chief. As for trailing Clinton in the polls, remember, Clinton the First once trailed Paul Tsongas. Yes, Paul Tsongas.
Should he become the first black President of the United States, Obama would ultimately be remembered as one of the most famous people who ever lived. By all accounts a super intelligent, contemplative guy, he surely understands the magnitude of the moment and his potential place in world history. America may not be ready for a black president, but Obama has somehow managed to transcend “black” to become the face of a populist, centrist political day. Barack Obama is lightning-in-a-bottle personified, and he can’t afford to pass on this generation-defining opportunity.